Trade-Wind Season 2026 Calendar – Month-by-Month 18–25 Knot Windows Worldwide
Planning a trip for 2026? The climate models have spoken. We are starting the year with a La Niña pattern, transitioning to Neutral, with a possible El Niño late in the year.
This has massive implications for wingfoil wind. La Niña typically supercharges the Trade Winds in the Pacific and Caribbean. Here is your month-by-month roadmap to the 15–25 knots sweet spot.
Q1: January – March (La Niña Strong)
The Vibe: The Pacific is cold. The Easterly trades are violent.
- Caribbean (Bonaire, Cabarete): 90% probability of 20+ knots. The La Niña effect reduces wind shear here, making the trades dense and consistent.
- Hawaii (Maui): Strong, reliable trades. Expect 25+ knots days. The winter swell will also be pumping.
- Avoid: The US West Coast (California) often sees erratic wind direction during La Niña winters.
Q2: April – June (Transition to Neutral)
The Vibe: The ocean warms up. Thermal wind engines start to stack.
- Canary Islands (Fuerteventura): The classic trade season begins. Expect 30+ knots (nuclear winds) as the Azores High strengthens.
- US East Coast (Hatteras): The thermal wind season kicks off. Look for Southwest days stacking with fronts.
- Mediterranean: The Mistral and Tramontana winds are active but gusty.
Q3: July – September (Neutral / El Niño Watch)
The Vibe: Heat domes and reliable thermals.
- Mauritius (Le Morne): Peak season. The Indian Ocean trades are unaffected by the Pacific shift. Solid 25 knots.
- Hood River (The Gorge): The heat differential is maxed out. The Venturi effect delivers high wind daily.
- Brazil (Jericoacoara): The wind machine turns on. It is the most reliable wind forecast on earth. 30 days of wind per month.
Q4: October – December (El Niño Potential?)
The Vibe: Uncertainty increases.
- Western Australia: The "Fremantle Doctor" (sea breeze) starts.
- Cape Town: The season begins early. The "Cape Doctor" brings 30+ knots.
- Alert: If El Niño develops rapidly, the Caribbean trades might weaken in late 2026. Keep an eye on the ensemble forecast before booking Xmas trips.
Summary
2026 looks like a banner year for the classics. The early La Niña guarantees a strong start for Hawaii and the Caribbean. If you want 18–25 knots every day, book Q1 in the Caribbean or Q3 in Mauritius.